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Expert View

Why September Jobs Data will Likely Be Strong

Let's admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast.  The are not many reliable inputs as it is the first piece of real sector data for a new month. 

Nevertheless, it is an important piece of economic data, and which, as we saw earlier in the year, a significant downside miss could freeze the Fed.  

There are four data points that suggest that a strong September jobs report, to be released on October 7. 

1.  Weekly initial jobless claims have fallen about 10k whether using a four-week moving average or comparing the survey weeks. 

2.  There were about 50k more people than average who missed work in August due to the weather.   The lion's share will likely have returned. 

3.  The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence showed the gap between jobs plentiful and hard to get rose to 6.3 (from 4.0) and is the highest since August 2007. 

4.  Income tax withholding in September is running almost 6% on average higher than in August. 

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