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GBP Gains Cut from Scottish 'No' Vote to Independence

CURRENCY ANALYSIS GBP Gains Cut from Scottish No Vote to Independence

Scotland will remain a part of the UK after a 'No' vote exceeded the 'Yes' vote for independence in the Scottish referendum (18/09/2014). 55% of people voted 'No' and 45% of people voted 'Yes' in Scotland making it a pretty close poll. This debate about the Scottish referendum has been going on for 2 years and a record number of Scottish people voted. This helped the Pound Sterling and FTSE 100 edge higher during trading. Scotland is vital for the UK economy and if Scotland became independent then the UK would suffer greatly. The UK economy has been doing well as shown by recent data, such as the claimant count change (Actual: -37.2K, Forecast: -29.7K, Previous: 37.4K, 17/09/2014) and the unemployment rate (Actual: 6.2%, Forecast: 6.3%, Previous: 6.4%, 17/09/2014), which shows that slack in the labour market is tightening. In addition, the unemployment rate is rapidly declining signalling that we could see unemployment below 6% by the end of the year, if the current trend continues. Adding to this positive data is average earnings index 3m/y (Actual: 0.6 %, Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: -0.1%, 17/09/2014) signals that wages are starting to pick up. Wage growth has been one of the major concerns that the BoE (Bank of England) has had, as this is probably one of the main catalysts of an interest rate hike. If wages continue to grow then we could expect an earlier interest rate hike (end of this year - Q1 2015). 

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