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RBA may Cut Interest Rates

currency analysis RBA cut interest rates

Judging off previous data the Australian economy is struggling with the strong Aussie dollar. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) needs to implement a looser monetary style to devalue the Aussie dollar. Speculation has increased that the RBA will further reduce interest rates from 2.5%. Much of this increase of the Aussie dollar can be attributed to strategy used by traders called a carry-trade. The carry trade is when investors borrow money at a low interest rate and invest in higher yielding assets. In addition, with commodity prices so low, there exists a divergence between commodity prices and the Aussie dollar. Exporters are being hurt, the RBA needs to do all they can to continue their commodity led growth. As we would expect, the housing market is picking up, there has been a surge in building approvals m/m (Actual: 9.9%, Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: -5.8%, 03/07/2014). However, retail sales have reduced (Actual: -0.5%, Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.1%, 03/07/2014). We expect this week's Australian CPI data to be below or on forecast (Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.6%, 23/07/2014) and could provide us with some insight on whether the RBA may cut interest rates.

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