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Present and Future EUR and USD Yield Curve Implications

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The Present

The current 10 to 2 year yield spread is 1.4042 while the 10 year yield to 3 month spread is 1.9445. In basis point terms, the short side reveals 0.0140 vs 0.0194. The middle yield curve in terms of the 30 year V 5 year yield spreads reveal 1.1186 or 0.0111 and 0.5841 or 0.0058 for 30 V the 10 year. Further, current 10 V 5 spreads equates to 0.5425 or 0.0054. The value of the entire curve in 30 V 3 month is current 2.5286 or 0.0252. Present view from 1 year rates, 5 years forward trades at about 2.4 or 0.0024. What will occur with that value in my estimation is a continued slow slow drop over time. In spread terms, the current yield curve is flat to inverted as short term yields trade higher than middle and longer term rates which means either short yields must fall or middle and longer yields must rise. To recap, short yields 0.0140 and 0.0194 Vs 0.011`and 0.0054 in the middle V 0.0058 in the long term.

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