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Structural Reforms Still Need to Take Place in the Euro Bloc

currency analysis Structural Reforms Euro Bloc

Mark Carney (Governor of the BoE (Bank of England)) has said that the "economy is starting to head back to normal." He also stated that a rate rise is likely to be implemented fairly soon. An interest rate hike will be gradual as not to alert mortgage owners and borrowers. If the increase in interest rates is not gradual then this could potentially tip the UK back in to recession. In addition, persistent low interest rates can be threat as stated by Mark Carney, this is due to the fact that they can cause riskier borrowing. Recent data from the UK economy has been disappointing, which has led to a drop in the Pound Sterling. This data consists of retail sales m/m (Actual: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: -0.5%, 24/07/2014) and CBI industrial order expectations (Actual: 2, Forecast: 9, Previous: 11, 22/07/2014), which have been below expectations. The only key data this week is manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 57.2, Previous: 57.5, 01/08/2014) which we expect to be on forecast. 

The economic recovery still remains sluggish in the Euro Bloc. Much of this sluggish growth is due to structural factors. These structural factors cannot be addressed by the ECB (European Central Bank). Politicians will need to address these structural factors via fiscal measures. Final GDP q/q (Actual: 0.2%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%, 02/07/2014) shows that growth is stagnant.

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