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source: FxWire Pro

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Expert View

RBA may hold rates at this week’s meeting

The RBA will be deciding this week on whether to cut the interest rate from 2.5%. Although, there exists a low probability that the RBA may cut interest rates, this will ensure a cheaper Aussie Dollar as it is still very high by historical standards. Judging from previous meetings the RBA could wait until the Fed tapers QE and raises interest rates to help devalue the Aussie Dollar. Although, the RBA may change interest rates according to the health of the economy if they are not playing the waiting game. Economic growth depends on the mining industry in Australia and a cheaper Aussie dollar will help increase profits and boost growth. In addition, due to the geopolitical risks such as Ukraine and Russia, this has helped prop up the Aussie Dollar. The Aussie Dollar, Yen and gold etc. are considered as safe havens (demand increases due to uncertainty in markets), demand increases during times of uncertainty. Private capital expenditure has increased (Actual: 1.1%, Forecast: -0.6%, Previous: -2.5%, 28/08/2014) showing signs that the economy is expanding. GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 1.1%, 03/09/2014) should be on or above forecast due to the high Aussie Dollar which has hurt exports.

The US is enjoying a promising recovery, with growth excelling (Prelim GDP q/q, Actual: 4.2%, Forecast: 3.9%, Previous: 4.0%, 28/08/2014). 

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