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CURRENCY ANALYSIS

USD Technical Outlook

22 Apr 2016

EUR/USD

As stated in the previous three articles in FX Trader Magazine, and which continues to be our mantra, we have stressed our very long standing view of the bearish seven-year cycle for the EUR/USD. Our long-term forecast has continued to stress a top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast the subsequent decline to 1.1555 for March 2014. The decline to only 1.0460 [ shy of the .9890 ongoing long-term objective of the last three years], and retest of 1.1715 dampened bearish long-term momentum for the EUR/USD, but did not terminate the forecast decline. The EUR/USD graphic is the same graphic from January, and shows the completion of the forecast correction for January 2016. We are in a prolonged development of the medium-term corrective top in the Euro, and continue to forecast a resumption of the decline still to .9890 through May 2016. We continue as well to forecast a further decline to .9330 strong long-term support into October 2016 in an even stronger dollar outlook than the previous 5 years. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD above 1.1715 would dampen the bearish long-term technical aspects of the market, and result in a strong retest of 1.2230 in a higher, choppy outlook [1.0880 - 1.2230] over the subsequent six months.

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