Therefore, we confirm or forecasts for a temporary weakening of the exchange rate in the near term, followed by a recovery in the course of 2017, probably starting in 2Q. In the near term, uncertainty at the international level will continue to condition the Swedish economy as well, with the risk of derailing inflation from its convergence to target. Beyond the near term, on the other hand, the expected stabilisation of the overall macroeconomic picture, and of the euro area in particular, as well as of the Swedish economy, should favour a gradual and moderate strengthening of the krona. Baseline scenario risks to the exchange rate are skewed slightly upwards in the near term, i.e. the krona could prove stronger than expected against the euro, due to the downside risks weighing on the EUR/USD exchange rate.




Source: Thomson Reuters-Datastream

Luca Mezzomo / Chief Economist
Asmara Jamaleh / Economist – Forex Markets
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department