E-mail:    

USD/CHF

Yearend Dollar View, Remains, Bullish, After, Churning, Third Quarter, Currency Analysis, fx trader, forex chart-5

The Swiss Franc remains the bellwether, proactive currency. The third quarter consolidation and cross rate rotation combine in this currency. Every time the USD/CHF appeared to break out to the upside, EUR/CHF would decline, thus dampening any bullish momentum back to neutral. Each time the USD/CHF would break out to the downside, EUR/CHF would rally to its high and again neutralize any bearish momentum in USD/CHF. As a result, we remained neutral. We are watching closely for the simultaneous strength of both cross rates to confirm the resumption of the forecast rally in the Dollar.

After the forecast decline from 1.0330 to .9475 [forecast for March 2016 but completed in May 2016] once again mixed the medium-term and long-term technicals back to neutral, we continue to forecast the subsequent, gradual rally to only 1.0440, out to January 2017 from October 2016, in the waning bullish long-term outlook for USD/CHF through the first quarter of 2017. Only a monthly close back below .9475 would terminate the forecast rally and commence a decline to .8240 strong long-term support over the subsequent five months.NOTE: EUR/CHF, the secondary but important directional indicator to USD/CHF, has failed at 1.1105 and eroded the medium-term technical aspects further to neutral/bearish. We continue to forecast a decline to retest 1.0235, out to January 2017 from October 2016, [a further6% decline] which underscores the waning strength evident in USD/CHF. In the big picture, this is also a strong indication of the waning long-term bull market in the Dollar that we now believe culminates in March2017.

GOLD

Yearend Dollar View, Remains, Bullish, After, Churning, Third Quarter, Currency Analysis, fx trader, forex chart-6

The inverse relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar is one of the few correlations that remain intact during this disjointed global environment. Our long-term bearish outlook for Gold since May 2012 culminated with the decline to the 1044.55 ongoing long-term objective for Gold in December 2015. The strong rally through the 1155 medium-term corrective objective for February 2016, as well as through 1311 very strong medium-term resistance in June 2016 again eroded the improved medium-term techs back in neutral/bearish and increased the medium-term divergences. We continue to forecast a subsequent decline to retest 1044, out to January 2017 from August 2016, to complete the long-term decline. We continue to forecast a subsequent medium-term consolidation over the subsequent six months [1044 – 1374] through March 2017. This consolidation is the formation of the long-term bottom for Gold, reinforced by the expected divergences from the further rally in the Dollar through January 2017. Only a monthly close now back above 1374 would terminate a retest of 1044, and commence a rally to retest 1525 strong long-term resistance over the subsequent two months.

<<Previos     Next>>