The macroeconomics framework in the last three months has evolved into a clear direction: the triumph of the 'green shoots'. In mid-March, the struggling stock market was just beginning to recover from violent declines suffered in the first nine weeks of 2009. By mid-June, the message is clear: the market seems to have chosen, from the alphabetical soup of potential recoveries from the darkest of recessions, his favorite letter. The equity market each day that passes seems to say emphatically: it will be a V recovery (and not a U, a W or, worse yet, an L of Japanese memories).

The Forex world, for many months deeply bounded to the destiny of the global economy, could not respond in a more coherent way. From March 15th to June 12th market closing AUD and NZD have definitely been the victorious currencies (around 24% gain on the dollar!). Easily to be explained, given their notoriously cyclical nature, linked to global growth, especially to Asian growth (which seems to be a primary force in this recovery with the notable exception of Japan). Partial victory for the CAD (+12%).

More surprisingly, after facing plenty of obstacles, the Pound has also been a real outperformer (+18% on the Dollar and +8% on the Euro), being UK perhaps the nation where with more evidence the 'green shoots' of recovery showed up. Of course the emerging currencies have performed well, especially those whose value is usually measured versus the Dollar, as the ZAR (+19%), the currencies of Latin America and those of NJA (non-Japan Asia). Eastern Europe and Turkey, typically quoted instead against a Euro in-shape, have shown rather marginal progress (between flat and 3%).

The other side of the coin has been the renewed weakness of the Dollar. The first week of June has seen the greenbuck marking yearly lows against all major currencies: 1.4337 Eur/Usd, 1.6363 Gbp/Usd, 1.0592 Usd/Chf, 0.8264 Aud/Usd, 0, 6435 Nzd/Usd, 1.0785 Usd/Cad. The Euro has settle, as the Swiss Franc (for now quite able to resist the strong will of weaker currency of its own central bank), in an intermediate position.

The Yen, without much noise, has actually shown a similar weakness to the Dollar, with Usd/Jpy virtually unchanged in the middle of an uninspiring three months range (93.50 - 101.50), unusually peaceful compared to the crazy volatility of the last two years.

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