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South African Reserve Bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.0%. Earlier that day, South Africa reports February PPI and money and loan data. February trade will be reported Friday. The economy remains weak, but inflation is still above the 3-6% target range and so the central bank cannot ease yet.

Korea reports February IP Friday, which is expected to rise 8.0% y/y vs. 1.7% in January. On Saturday, it reports March trade. Real sector data remain fairly firm. With inflation likely to pick up, we think the BOK will tilt more hawkish this year. Next policy meeting is April 13, no change in rates is likely then.

China reports official March PMI Friday, which is expected to tick up to 51.7. The economic data out of China recently points to stabilization. Taken along with rising price pressures, we think the PBOC may move to a more hawkish stance this year. The recent snugging of the OMO and MLF rates are likely a precursor for a hike in the policy rates.

Turkey reports February trade and Q4 GDP Friday. GDP growth is expected to rebound to 1.9% y/y from -1.8% in Q3, which was depressed by the attempted coup in July. The central bank recently hiked the Late Liquidity Window rate but left the benchmark rate unchanged due to concerns about the sluggish economy.

Dr. Win Thin
Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy

Brown Brothers Harriman

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