AUD/CAD – Long term

3 Oct 2014

AUD/CAD broke beneath the 2001 bottom at .7539 to reach a new all-time low at .7181 in October 2008 before immediately rebounding.  A two-legged advance to .9915 in late 2009 and 1.0783 in early 2012 followed, interrupted by a higher low at .8582.  A 2 year top pattern has since been completed, with losses stalling at .9185 in mid 2013, just over the base of a 5 year projected bull channel, ahead of a choppy recovery to 1.0349 in early 2014.  A retreat has followed and AUD/CAD would appear to be at an important juncture. It is testing the .9698-.9730 support area (February 2014 higher low / midpoint of 1.0047-.9414 dip) which is just above the base of the aforementioned multi-year bull channel (now at .9614, rising .0034 per month) and a higher low will ideally needs to form around this area to keep alive a possible further multi-month recovery towards the 2013 & 2012 highs at 1.0717 & 1.0783.  However, failure to see a lasting recovery through former resistance at 1.0047 would be of concern and start raising the prospects of 1.0349 marking a key lower top for a deeper retreat over the coming year or so towards the .8582-.8686 area.


currency analysis long term AUD CAD