E-mail:    

CURRENCY ANALYSIS

AUD/NZD – Long term

5 Jan 2016

AUD/NZD peaked at 1.3794 in March 2011, a 19 year high, before tracing out a 3-4 year head & shoulders top pattern above a neck-line drawn off the 2009, 2010 & 2011 higher lows at 1.1936, 1.2105 & 1.2321.  This major reversal pattern was completed towards the end of 2012, triggering a move to 1.0494 & 1.0022 lows in 2014 & 2015, interrupted by a lower top at 1.1302.  The subsequent recovery exceeded the 1.1302 lower top to reach 1.1428, ahead of the latest dip.  With MACD having largely unwound from oversold, the risk is for a resumption of the 4 year downtrend towards the .9500-.9600 area over the coming year, but as yet former key support at 1.0494 has not been breached and while that remains intact there is the possibility that the right shoulder to a 2 year head & shoulders type of base is being formed.  But while below the 1.1302-1.1428 resistance area, the odds remain in favour of a downside break towards our .9500-.9600 target.

AUD/CAD MONTHLY CANDLESTICK CHART

currency analysis long term AUD NZD

Next>>