EUR/CHF – Long term

5 Jan 2016

EUR/CHF has steadily declined since recording the all-time traded high at 1.6828 in October 2007, with action having been contained within a bearish channel.  The January 2015 breakdown almost reached the 61.8% Fibonacci extension target before recovering. With the major moving averages still pointed lower and MACD still heading lower, we see the risk of a key lower top being left over coming months, possibly by 1.1359, the mid-point of the previous (2011-2013) recovery phase and ideally by the top of the 8 year bear channel / falling 60 month (5 year) moving average (now at 1.1424 / 1.1879 respectively, falling by .0056 & .0030 per month), ahead of a further decline.  We need to see a clean break of the former floor (from 2011) at 1.0071 to confirm a fresh leg lower, in which case a move in the direction of the (2015) all-time low at .8599 could commence.  Longer-term, we do not rule out a break below the 2015 low to hit yet new all-time lows.



currency analysis long term EUR CHF