EUR/JPY – Long term
EUR/JPY retraced close to 76.4% of the 2008-2012 169.96-94.14 decline, reaching a peak of 149.73 in December 2014, close to former key support from the 2007 low at 149.33. Since then, a two-legged retreat has occurred, so far retracing almost exactly 50% of the 94.14-149.73 2012-2014 recovery. With MACD having dipped below the pivotal zero line over recent months, we see the risk of a continued retracement of the 2012-2014 advance towards support-tuned-resistance around 111.42-112.08 and possibly the 102.81-107.26 area during 2016 (Fibonacci retracement & projection), where attempts may then be made to develop a key higher low above the 2012 bottom, setting up a renewed recovery phase. Look for an initial bounce to possibly now leave a sub 141.03 lower top by 133.57-133.73 (midpoint of previous 126.11-141.03 bounce / former resistance from 2013).
EUR/JPY MONTHLY CANDLESTICK CHART