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CURRENCY ANALYSIS

USD/CHF – Long term

USD/CHF settled into a long-term downtrend after double topping at 1.8296 / 1.8222 in October 2000 / July 2001.  Losses accelerated to .7071 in August 2011 before starting to recover.  The January 2015 break-out over key resistance at .9835 / .9969 (2013 / 2012 highs) and the 9 year downtrend connecting 2006, 2008 & 2010 highs (at 1.0130) was initially short-lived, but following the brief downside capitulation to .7434 in January 2015 the recovery phase which previously existed has attempted to resume.  A setback has occurred over recent months since peaking at 1.0327 in November 2015, almost spot-on the falling 120 month (10 year) moving average.  But the chart pattern continues to look constructive, with scope for a higher low to develop over coming months above the May 2015 one at .9073, ideally by the rising 60 month (5 year) moving average (now .9286, rising around .0011 per month), ahead of further headway beyond the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010-2011 1.1728-.7071 decline (at 1.0629) towards 1.10 and possibly to eventually retest the 1.1728 lower peak. We will need to see a reversal under .9024-.9073 to question hopes of a continued recovery phase.

USD/CHF MONTHLY CANDLESTICK CHART

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