USD/ILS – Long term

3 Oct 2014

USD/ILS extended losses from the 2002 peak at 5.0101 as far as 3.2043 in 2008, before retracing close to 61.8% of the decline to leave a key lower top at 4.2775 in 2009.  This recovery peak was almost spot-on the (blue) 120 month / 10 year moving average and a deeper retracement followed, eventually leaving a key higher low at 3.3533 in 2011.  A fresh recovery phase then lasted 13 months and peaked at 4.0978 in 2012, again this was almost spot-on the (blue) 120 month / 10 year moving average.  A 2 year slide bottomed at 3.4014 in July 2014 and is now being followed by a strong rally.  MACD has turned up, but its overall structure displays modest bearish divergence.  This suggests a lower top may develop over coming months, possibly close to former highs around the 3.8630-3.9184 area and be followed by a return towards the 3.3533-3.4623 area.  


currency analysis long term USD ILS