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USD/JPY

Dollar, Long-Term, Technical Outlook, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex USDJPY

As in the mid-year 2015 quarterly outlook highlighting the USD/JPY, the rally to the 124.15 top of the medium-term consolidation view produced weak multiple divergences and waning, bullish, medium-term momentum. The combination was the further confirmation of the forecast correction to 115.55 completed in August 2015. We continue to forecast a further consolidation view [115.55 – 124.65] through the first quarter of 2016.

Although we do not expect a deeper decline than 115.55 through the first quarter of 2016, we have completed the rally in USD/JPY at 124.65, for both the medium-term and long –term outlook into the second half of 2016. As stated in the last quarterly outlook, only a monthly close back above 125.85 (producing a further rally to 135.20 strong long-term resistance over four months) or now a monthly close back below 115.55 (confirming not only the long-term top but also producing a decline to retest 107.80 over two months) would alter our consolidation view for most of 2016.

NOTE: EURJPY to 117.40 through October 2016

 

USD/CHF

Dollar, Long-Term, Technical Outlook, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex USDCHF

In our Long-term Outlook for 2015, I stressed USD/CHF  had always been my barometer for imminent changes to the U.S. Dollar while trading currencies interbank through the 1980’s and early 1990’s. It is because of this respect for USD/CHF that again I am presenting USD/CHF in this outlook for broader indications of the Dollar trend. The sharp decline to .7425 in January 2015 was more pronounced but similar to the sharp decline to .7070 in August 2011, leaving the long-term technical aspects neutral/bullish for the Dollar. Once again though, we have rallied to only 1.0330 shy of the 1.0525 medium-term objective for last year. The long-term technicals and momentum are increasingly mixed in neutral/bullish but not negative by any means. Therefore, we are forecasting a decline to retest .9475 into February 2016, then higher again to 1.0440 into October 2016 in a less bullish long-term outlook for USD/CHF through 2016. Only a monthly close back below .9070 would terminate the forecast rally and commence a decline to .8240 strong long-term support over the subsequent five months.                                                                                                                                          NOTE: EUR/CHF, the secondary but important directional indicator to USD/CHF, is failing to penetrate 1.1050 weak long-term resistance. We are forecasting a decline to retest 1.0235 into October 2015 which underscores the  waning  strength  evident  in  $CHF.

 

USD/RUB

Dollar, Long-Term, Technical Outlook, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex USDRUB

The previous article in January 2015 [“Ruble in Rubble”] was not an exaggeration but more a realistic comment about the forecast for 2015. The forecast retest of 50.40 for January 2015 followed by the forecast subsequent Ruble collapse of 25% [Dollar rally] to 67.45 underscored the volatility and bearish outlook for the Ruble against the U.S. Dollar. We are forecasting a decline from 71.85 strong medium-term resistance into February 2016 to 62.60, then higher to 74.70 through July 2016 in a still broad, volatile, neutral/bullish outlook for USD/RUB through 2016. We continue to forecast the broader, longer term range of (48.65 – 79.50) through early 2017. Only a monthly close back below 47.70 would again neutralize the technicals for the USD/ RUB and yield a retest of 36.70 over a three months.

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