For this article, my analysis is focused on the USDJPY, a currency that trend traders have taken full advantage of in the past and has been reliable for neat and profitable trends. Out of all the JPY currencies, the USDJPY and the GBPJPY are the two that look the most appealing.

The monthly chart below shows the recent bullish trends that handed out good profit. We can also see the recent bearish move to the downside which started from around 125 in 2015. Price is currently struggling to break through the 100 figure. This is where a trader must apply patience and wait for price to break or bounce. All too often, traders fail to apply patience and are too quick to look for reversals but the strength is always with the trend. Price is also trading below the low of 2015, the bottom pink line, giving price a bearish bias.

Managing, Forex Portfolio, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex monthly

Monthly USDJPY chart

The weekly and the daily charts below show price trading below their respective 200sma and 50sma adding further weight to an overall bearish market but until the 100 figure and pivot low is cleared, we must look to stand aside.

Managing, Forex Portfolio, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex Weekly

Weekly USDJPY chart

Managing, Forex Portfolio, Technical Analysis, fx trader, forex Daily

Daily USDJPY chart

There are traders who are already short on this and for several weeks who will now be managing their stops in case there is a bounce to the upside. If price breaks and closes below 100, then they will look to add further positions.

Remember, a trend is a function of time. Eliminate time, eliminate the trend. Eliminate the trend, eliminate compounded profit.

Patience is a key trait to a top trader and very much a virtue in this art.

Zaheer Anwari
Founder & Trend Trader at
The Traders’ Cosmos